jermrocktheboat: 11/01/2005

matrix ?

??

AM I ONE YEAR SMARTER NOW?

221105

Let’s say you’re on a game show where the host shows you three doors. One door has a brand-new car behind it, the other two have goats behind ‘em. You’re trying to win the car, obviously.

So you pick one of the doors, but they don’t open it yet. Instead the host opens up one of the other doors and shows you there’s a goat behind it. Meaning the door you picked is either the other goat or the car.

Then the host gives you the option of sticking with the door you picked, or switching to the final, unopened door. What should you do?

The correct answer is, you should switch your choice. If you switch there’s a two-in-three chance you’ll get the car.Why?Most people think their chances are fifty-fifty--one of the unopened doors has a goat, the other has a car--so sticking or switching will make no difference. But those odds are wrong.Here’s why.

First of all, forget for a sec that the host opens one of the doors to show you a goat--that’s a red herring, meant to distract you. The first step of the problem is, you pick one of three doors. Two of them have goats, one has a car. That means there’s a two-in-three chance you’ve picked a goat, and only a one-in-three chance you’ve picked the car on the first try. So chances are you’ve picked a goat to begin with, which means switching to the other available door will get you the car. Fascinating, no? It all has to do with perception.

Ok, mini survey. How many of you actually agree with that? Seriously. I'm just so amazed such a simple scenario and the whole world is splitting hairs over it, giving me ridiculous formulas and diagrams. If life is so complicated I'm gonna need to marry a Mathematician to survive.

MORAL OF THE STORY: JUST STICK WITH WHAT YOU HAVE !

BACK!

It's been a good trip, honestly I couldn't bear to leave Dubai. It's a really beautiful place. Pity it's only 5 days. Oh well. Anyway, I'm 19! Would like to say a big thanks to those who texted me birthday wishes while I was away, not to worry, I've received them all, and I really apprecaite it. And that includes those in Dubai too, who got the cake for me (FROM THE BUFFET TABLE!) but it was very thoughtful, thanks so much :)

I'll let the pictures speak for themselves !